Wood Packaging Index 2nd Quarter 2018 CEEB vs HPE

Index trends in the 2nd Quarter 2018

Unfortunately for some and fortunately for others, we will repeat this assessment again.

With this 8th consecutive increase in the CEEB index, our estimates from last year proved to be accurate. On the other hand, we had probably underestimated its strenghness ....

The CEEB stood at 131.8 points against 127.3 for the previous quarter, an increase of +3.5%. Over the last 12 months the increase is 9.3% and almost +12% since the last low point in the 3rd quarter of 2016.

The catch-up effect with the HPE mentioned in our previous letter is confirmed but remains relative. The gap between the 2 indices is reduced by 1.4 points.

The German index continues to rise with an increase of 3.1 points compared to the previous quarter, i.e. +1.8% and +12.8% over 12 sliding months.

What will be the trend over the next few months?

The next annual fall sales meeting is fast approaching and should sign the "LA" on the trend even if OTC sales could be even more important than last year.

Given the demand, we see no reason for a decrease in upward pressure from forest owners.

Moreover, the increase in energy costs does not seem to have been integrated, or fully integrated, into previous increases.

It could be taken into account in this new school year, by keeping up the pressure on buyers.

The order books and production plans in both sawmill and pallet production seem as full as before the summer. Production times for specific products can reach up to 4 weeks or more...

Producers' concerns about their level of activity are not on the agenda. On the other hand, however, customer pressure on both delivery times and quality control is much stronger. It could serve as a counterweight to successive increases and poorly accepted by customers.

From a Macro-economic point of view:

For the first time since 2012, the inflation rate exceeds 2% over a 12-month period, but it should be restated, excluding highly volatile products such as oil and energy. So inflation remains below 1%.

Inflation seems for the moment to remain under control, but the impact on purchasing power will not be negligible. For this reason, we believe that an inflationary return is not likely, even if "controlled" inflation around 2% over 12 months would make it possible to reduce government debts at a lower cost....

Price stability and even disinflation seem to be behind us, but the limit will be the economy's ability to absorb increases without lowering consumption.

The latest indicators in this regard warn of a slowdown in consumption and a level of confidence that would start to decline again.

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During November-December 2018 with the release of the 3rd Quarter 2018 indices