Wood Packaging Index 3rd Quarter 2017 CEEB vs HPE

Indexes in the 3rd Quarter 2017

Once again the variation between the German index (HPE) and the French index (CEEB), will surprise us !

The HPE, with an increase of more than 6% over the last 12 months, reached its highest level since 2005 (160.7 vs 158.4 Q2-2014).

As for the CEEB- Pallet wood, the index evolved by a little more than 2.6% to 120.90, over 12 months remaining below its highest level of 2014 (122.7).

Why this decorrelation?

Price changes are traditionally faster in Germany (as well as in the eastern countries) both downwards and upwards. The economic players are more used to stick to fluctuations in activity, and adaptation of supply to demand.

Apart from 2014, the index amplitude has always been higher in Germany than in France. The year 2017 confirms us the speed with which the German index can evolve by taking 4.5% in only two quarters where France took only a little more than 1%.

France - is there a risk of Catching up in 2018?

Most certainly if economic activity remains positive.

The players in the wood and pallet industries have already committed their requests for increases to their customers.

These increases can only be visible with the index of the 4th Quarter 2017 (publishable during March 2018) and the successive indices.

This is subject to the condition that manufacturers' declarations on price levels are made to the body that issues the statistics and that they are reliable. It is one of the problems of the French index CEEB, it is only incentive and declarative.

In this context, these increases should not go beyond 3% to 5% and certainly with a new appointment clause during 2018 for all non-indexed contracts.

The order books are well filled, and sawn lumber and pallet production should have been hard to keep up. Stocks could not be replenished as is traditionally the case between September and December.

This situation would be all the more true for sawmills that are still struggling to supply demand today. The usual year-end closures for intermediate maintenance will not improve the situation for the beginning of 2018.

If economic activity remains at a good level, the supply of Palette Neuve could pose problems as early as the first quarter of 2018.

This situation could even worsen with the lack of second-hand pallets available, particularly on EPAL-Europe standards, in the event that the usual second-hand pallet users increase demand for new pallets.

MyPalletsOnline Team